In this part of the world, sustainable development rests on economic diversification, and the industrial sector has a crucial role to play in the transformation. This isn’t just about localizing production to improve the balance of trade; it’s about building an entire ecosystem that supports local business to expand, invest in innovation, and attract and develop the right talent. It also provides the right infrastructure and tools for competing on the world stage.

Our task was to develop an industrial strategy for a national manufacturing sector. It contributed around 10 percent of GDP, was concentrated in three subsectors (of which one accounted for roughly 50 percent of the sector’s total industrial value), and had stagnated for more than five years. At this pace, a continued dependence on oil was almost certain, slowing growth and making the economy highly vulnerable. A strategy to attract investment and boost industrialization was needed.

First, we assessed the country’s economic competitiveness and capabilities to understand the root causes of this stagnation, which also helped us shape appropriate initiatives and incentives further down the line. Importantly, this industry analysis included both international benchmark data and private-sector input, to provide objective facts and a direct, real-world perspective.

We also looked into the future, examining priority global trends and their influence on the development of the industrial sector. This included industrial technology and innovation (4IR) and its implications for the future of work, climate change and the energy transition, and increasing competition and geopolitical tensions between established and emerging superpowers. To ensure the strategy readiness, we developed scenarios (potential future strategic operating environments) to stress-test our hypotheses, yielding design enhancements and no-regret moves.

This allowed us to formulate a future-ready industrial strategy at two levels. First was a strategic framework covering all industrial sectors. Based on a unified vision, it outlined key objectives along with enabling initiatives, policies, and industrial infrastructure at a national level. Second, we developed sector-specific strategies within the same strategic framework, taking the country’s starting point and relevant global trends into account. Each laid out specific ambitions and priorities, supported by both general enablers, such as regulations and financing, and targeted economic incentives to trigger investment and develop priority value chain segments.

The result? $500 billion will be invested over the next 15 years. This is expected to cut imports and boost exports fivefold, delivering a positive balance of trade and quadrupling the country’s manufacturing GDP.

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